Madagascar is on the brink of a political earthquake, and the world is watching with bated breath. In a dramatic turn of events, President Andry Rajoelina has declared that an illegal power grab by the military is underway, threatening the nation’s fragile democracy. But here’s where it gets even more complicated: the very same elite military unit, Capsat, that helped Rajoelina rise to power in a 2009 coup, is now at the center of this turmoil, announcing its takeover of the army.
This crisis didn’t emerge overnight. It began with weeks of youth-led protests that erupted on September 25, initially sparked by widespread water and electricity shortages. However, what started as a demand for basic services quickly escalated into a full-blown call for systemic change. Protesters, led by the leaderless Gen Z Madagascar movement—inspired by similar youth uprisings in Indonesia and Nepal—demanded Rajoelina’s resignation, an end to rampant corruption, and a radical overhaul of the political system. And this is the part most people miss: the protests are not just about immediate grievances but are a cry for a brighter, more equitable future in one of the world’s poorest nations, where GDP per capita stands at a mere $545, and corruption ranks among the highest globally.
Rajoelina, in a statement released Sunday morning, insisted he was ‘managing national affairs’ within the country. Meanwhile, newly appointed Prime Minister Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo had earlier pledged the government’s willingness to engage in dialogue with all factions, including the military. Yet, Rajoelina’s words painted a dire picture: ‘An attempt to seize power illegally and by force, contrary to the constitution and democratic principles, is currently underway.’
Capsat’s move to take command of the military was confirmed in a video statement shared by local news outlets. By Sunday, General Demosthene Pikulas, the head of Capsat, had been installed as chief of the army staff in a ceremony attended by the armed forces minister, who publicly endorsed him. Pikulas acknowledged the ‘unpredictable’ nature of recent events and vowed the army’s responsibility to restore peace. However, when pressed on whether he supported Rajoelina’s resignation, he sidestepped the question, refusing to ‘discuss politics within a military facility.’
Here’s where it gets controversial: On Saturday, Capsat had pledged not to fire on protesters and urged the rest of the military to follow suit. Yet, by Sunday, the unit’s leadership was at the helm of what many are calling a coup. This duality has left many questioning Capsat’s true intentions. Are they champions of the people or power-hungry opportunists? One Capsat general claimed a soldier was killed by the gendarmerie, and a journalist was injured, adding to the chaos. The UN reported at least 22 deaths at the start of the protests, though Rajoelina disputed this, claiming only 12 ‘looters and vandals’ had died.
The protests, initially coordinated by Gen Z Madagascar, reflect a global trend of youth-driven movements challenging entrenched elites. Rajoelina’s attempt to quell the unrest by dissolving his government on September 29 was dismissed as insufficient by activists, who continue to demand his resignation and broader systemic reforms. On the streets, the chant ‘Miala Rajoelina!’ (Leave Rajoelina!) echoes the public’s frustration.
However, not everyone is convinced by Capsat’s intervention. Some young activists have labeled the unit’s actions ‘dangerous,’ fearing a repeat of the 2009 coup that brought Rajoelina to power. Is history repeating itself, or is this a genuine attempt to restore order and address public grievances?
Madagascar’s plight is a stark reminder of the challenges faced by nations grappling with poverty, corruption, and political instability. As the situation unfolds, one question lingers: Can Madagascar break free from its cycle of crisis, or is it doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past? What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments—let’s spark a conversation about the future of this island nation.
